Upcoming International Workshop:

Statistical Models and Diagnostics for Population Size Estimation Methods

 2 – 5 March 2015
Shiraz, Iran

What we cover

In first day, we start by explaining what a population estimation study is. We explain the type of estimates expected from a populationsize estimation (PSE) study. Giving examples, we will discuss the methods to measure uncertainty around PSE estimates considering both random and systematic errors. We will provide illustrate examples on how bootstrap re-sampling and Monte Carlo methods can be applied to measure uncertainties in general and then particularly in PSE estimates. Then, we will discuss different type of missing, explore the methods to determine their effect, adjust or reduce their effects on PSE estimates. Overall, our approach is to first explore bootstrap and Monte Carlo in general settings and then illustrate their applications for PSE studies. 
In second day, we introduce network scale up method, explain the assumptions and discuss the common mistakes and how to avoid them. We introduce participants to the analysis package, which automates the social network size estimation, measuring the effect of biases (such as visibility and popularity) and missing rate and impute missing to provide unbiased estimates.
In third day, we focus on another method, capture-re-capture and its variations such as one round or network-based estimators. We discuss the basic analysis, stratifications and log-linear regression models and introduce participants to the analysis packaged developed for this purposes.
The fourth day we introduce other population size estimation methods such as Multiplier and its variations, and Random Proxy Respondents. We also provide methods to estimate the variance for each method and provide uncertainty analysis for each estimate using bootstrap techniques.

At the conclusion of each method, we discuss assumptions and diagnostics related to that method and how to deal with them. Throughout the workshop we focus on concepts, the statistical package on how to do the proper analysis rather than the formulas.

What we do not cover
Implementing population size estimation includes formulating research questions, define the specific objectives and target populations, determining appropriate and feasible methods, staff training and supervision, resource management, data collection and monitoring, and then performing the statistical analysis. This workshop focuses only on the last step, which is data analysis.


Day - 1

·         What is population size estimation (PSE)?

·         Estimators for PSE studies

·         Bootstrap / resampling estimators

·         Monte Carlo

·         Approach to missing data in a PSE study

Day -2

·         Network scale up method assumptions, common mistakes

·         Diagnostics for indirect social network size estimation

·         Bias analysis and correction factors for a network scale up study

·         Missing data and imputation techniques in network scale-up method

·         Performing a network scale up analysis using Excel / SPSS

Day – 3

·         Capture-re-capture method assumptions, common mistakes

·         Basic estimator, log linear model and stratification

·         Capture-re-capture method variations

·         Performing a capture-re-capture analysis using Excel / SPSS

Day –4

·         Multiplier method assumptions, common mistakes

·         Multiplier method variations

·         Random Proxy Respondent assumption, common mistakes

·         Performing a Multiplier and Random ProxyRespondent analysis using Excel / SPSS

Who should attend
This workshop is intended for researchers, statisticians and graduate students, and anyone with an interest in understanding or performing data analysis for population size estimation studies. Our approach is conceptual rather than mathematical, and participants with basic knowledge on statistics and skills in working with analysis software (Excel and SPSS) should be able to fully understand the materials.

Workshop Organizers

·         Scientific - Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

·         Administrative - Shiraz HIV/AIDS Research Center (SHARC), Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

Workshop Partners
Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Zagreb, Croatia
HIV/AIDS Office, CDC, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran

Registration, Dates & Fees

Important dates



(Shiraz Grand Hotel)

Early Bird rate by January 27,  2015

International Participants


$ 100 per night/person

Domestic Participants


Registration after January 27,  2015

International Participants


$ 100 per night/person

Domestic Participants


Scholarship close by january 27, 2015

Registration close by January 31, 2015

Note: The method of payment will be sent to applicants upon completing the registration.

What the fee includes:
·         Copy of all lecture materials in a binder
·         Coffee Breaks
·         Lunch and Dinner during the workshop
·         One social event in a historical place in Shiraz

Cancellation policy:
·         More than a month before the workshop – refund in cash, less $100 service fee.
·         More than a week before the workshop – refund in cash, less $300 service fee.
·         Within a week of workshop and no-shows – no refund.


The workshop organizers are pleased to offer a full or partial scholarship to a number of participants from resource-limited countries.
A full scholarship includes:
·    Registration fee
·    Accommodation (dorm for the days of the workshop);

A partial scholarship includes a discount in the registration fee and/or accommodation, or providing dorm.
Scholarship applicationsare accepted by 27 January 2015. The applicants will be notified on the result by January 31, 2015.


Required elements for the scholarship are

·    An updated CV (in English)
·    A motivation letter which also indicate the type of scholarship or support you need to attend the workshop (in English)
You need to email above items with the completed Workshop Application Form to by the deadline (Jan. 27, 2015)

Visa Application Process

Upon receiving the registration form, SHARC will send you a formal invitation letter which makes you enable to apply for the visa. Those who applied for the scholarship will receive the invitation letter after having their scholarship evaluated.
Please feel free to contact us at any time with questions about the workshop registration or the materials:
For more information and apply for this program, please read and fill the workshop application form carefully.

Workshop Application form